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Abstract Savanna ecosystems are shaped by the frequency and intensity of regular fires. We model savannas via an ordinary differential equation (ODE) encoding a one-sided inhibitory Lotka–Volterra interaction between trees and grass. By applying fire as a discrete disturbance, we create an impulsive dynamical system that allows us to identify the impact of variation in fire frequency and intensity. The model exhibits three different bistability regimes: between savanna and grassland; two savanna states; and savanna and woodland. The impulsive model reveals rich bifurcation structures in response to changes in fire intensity and frequency—structures that are largely invisible to analogous ODE models with continuous fire. In addition, by using the amount of grass as an example of a socially valued function of the system state, we examine the resilience of the social value to different disturbance regimes. We find that large transitions (“tipping”) in the valued quantity can be triggered by small changes in disturbance regime. 

In many dryland environments, vegetation self-organizes into bands that can be clearly identified in remotely-sensed imagery. The status of individual bands can be tracked over time, allowing for a detailed remote analysis of how human populations affect the vital balance of dryland ecosystems. In this study, we characterize vegetation change in areas of the Horn of Africa where imagery taken in the early 1950s is available. We find that substantial change is associated with steep increases in human activity, which we infer primarily through the extent of road and dirt track development. A seemingly paradoxical signature of human impact appears as an increase in the widths of the vegetation bands, which effectively increases the extent of vegetation cover in many areas. We show that this widening occurs due to altered rates of vegetation colonization and mortality at the edges of the bands, and conjecture that such changes are driven by human-induced shifts in plant species composition. Our findings suggest signatures of human impact that may aid in identifying and monitoring vulnerable drylands in the Horn of Africa. 

Banded patterns consisting of alternating bare soil and dense vegetation have been observed in water-limited ecosystems across the globe, often appearing along gently sloped terrain with the stripes aligned transverse to the elevation gradient. In many cases, these vegetation bands are arced, with field observations suggesting a link between the orientation of arcing relative to the grade and the curvature of the underlying terrain. We modify the water transport in the Klausmeier model of water–biomass interactions, originally posed on a uniform hillslope, to qualitatively capture the influence of terrain curvature on the vegetation patterns. Numerical simulations of this modified model indicate that the vegetation bands arc convex-downslope when growing on top of a ridge, and convex-upslope when growing in a valley. This behaviour is consistent with observations from remote sensing data that we present here. Model simulations show further that whether bands grow on ridges, valleys or both depends on the precipitation level. A survey of three banded vegetation sites, each with a different aridity level, indicates qualitatively similar behaviour.